Refugee and asylum policy in Canada is moving quickly, and 2026 is already showing a shift in how claims are screened, processed, and enforced. There are four developments that are shaping the landscape right now: a sharp drop in claims in early 2026, new ineligibility rules under the Strong Borders Act (Bill C-12), a large backlog at the Immigration and Refugee Board (IRB), and a temporary pause on removals to Israel and Lebanon.
Below is a practical overview of what changed, who may be affected, and what to do if you are unsure where you stand.
1) Claims are down, especially from visitor visa holders
IRCC’s own asylum statistics show that the volume of new claims declined in January 2026 compared to January 2025. The same data highlights a significant drop in claims from temporary resident visa (TRV) holders, tied to heightened scrutiny of TRV applications.
This does not mean the system is “quiet.” It means the front end is tightening. If you are a claimant, or you are advising someone who may claim, the timing and pathway matter more than they did even a year ago.
2) Bill C-12: new ineligibility rules that can block referral to the IRB
A key change being discussed across the refugee bar is the Strong Borders Act (Bill C-12), which introduces new ineligibility criteria that can stop a claim from being referred to the IRB in certain situations.
Two provisions that are getting the most attention:
- The “one-year after arrival” rule: claims may be ineligible if made more than one year after a person’s first arrival in Canada after June 24, 2020.
- The “14 days” rule for irregular land border entry from the U.S.: claims may be ineligible if someone enters between ports of entry from the United States and makes a claim 14 days or more after entry.
Important nuance: Ineligibility for IRB referral is not the same thing as “no protection options.” People affected may still be able to seek protection through a pre-removal risk assessment (PRRA), depending on their situation and procedural posture.
3) The backlog is still large, and the IRB is focused on efficiency measures
Even with lower intake in some channels, Canada’s refugee system is still dealing with a heavy inventory. The IRB’s current planning materials describe a large caseload and a multi-year effort to improve throughput under its Horizon 2026–27 plan, including standardizing processes, using automation where possible, and managing cases as a single national inventory.
In practical terms, this can show up as:
- Longer wait times for hearings in many regions
- More emphasis on file readiness and compliance with timelines
- More procedural steps being enforced strictly, especially where files are inactive or incomplete
If your case is in the system, “doing nothing and waiting” can be risky. Missed deadlines and gaps in evidence can become the difference between a smooth hearing and a major setback.
4) Removal deferrals: CBSA pauses removals to Israel and Lebanon (March 2026)
On March 7, 2026, CBSA announced a temporary halt on removals to Israel and Lebanon, citing volatile conditions and generalized risk to civilians.
This kind of measure matters for people who are under an enforceable removal order and whose removal destination is covered by the deferral. It may change timelines and near-term enforcement posture, but it is not a permanent status solution on its own. If someone is out of status or removable, they still need a strategy.
Quick reference table: what the 2026 changes mean
| Issue | What changed | Who it can affect | What to do next |
| Fewer claims in early 2026 | New claims dropped vs. Jan 2025, with a major decline among TRV holders | Visitors and people planning entry who might later claim | Get advice early, especially before travel or a TRV strategy |
| Bill C-12 ineligibility rules | Potential non-referral to the IRB if claim made too late after arrival, or too late after irregular land entry | People who delayed claiming, and people who entered between ports of entry from the U.S. | Assess eligibility for IRB referral and PRRA options |
| IRB backlog and Horizon 26–27 | IRB emphasizing standardization, automation, national inventory case management | Claimants waiting for hearings and appellants in IRB processes | Keep files “hearing-ready,” respond fast, avoid inactivity |
| Removal deferrals | Temporary halt on removals to Israel and Lebanon | Individuals with enforceable removal orders to those destinations | Do not assume you are “safe”; build a longer-term plan |
Where Hummel Law fits in: practical help when the rules tighten
When the system adds new ineligibility gates and enforcement shifts, the most valuable support is often not “more forms.” It is case triage and strategy.
Hummel Law can help by:
- Reviewing whether a claim is likely to be referred to the IRB or blocked by the new ineligibility rules, then mapping the next-best path
- Preparing PRRA strategies and evidence packages when a PRRA becomes the available protection route
- Handling stay of removal planning and urgent steps when timelines become tight
- Advising on status, compliance, and risk so that small missteps do not trigger big consequences
If you or a family member is dealing with an asylum claim, a possible ineligibility issue, or removal risk, contact Hummel Law to book a confidential consultation and get a clear plan based on your exact facts.
